It is now “virtually certain” that 2024 will surpass all previous years to become the world’s warmest year on record, driven by extreme heatwaves and destructive storms, according to the European climate service’s latest projections.
Global temperatures are set to end the year more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, making 2024 the first calendar year to exceed this critical threshold. These elevated temperatures are primarily the result of human-induced climate change, with natural factors such as the El Niño weather pattern contributing in smaller measures.
Scientists are calling this a critical warning ahead of next week’s UN climate conference in Azerbaijan, COP29. “This latest record sends another stark reminder to governments at COP29 about the urgent need for decisive action to curb further warming,” said Liz Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society.
With just two months left in 2024, global temperatures have remained so high that only an unlikely and dramatic drop would prevent this new record from being set. Projections from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service suggest the year will end at least 1.55°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, surpassing the previous record set just last year, which was 1.48°C.
This milestone is particularly significant as it marks the first time a calendar year has exceeded the symbolic 1.5°C threshold, a key goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Nearly 200 countries committed to limiting global temperature rises to 1.5°C in an effort to avoid the most devastating effects of climate change.
While a single year of exceeding this mark does not mean the Paris Agreement has been violated (as it targets long-term averages over 20-year periods to account for natural fluctuations), it is a troubling indicator that the world is edging closer to a long-term temperature rise beyond the 1.5°C limit. Last month, the UN issued a stark warning, predicting that current global policies could lead to a temperature rise of more than 3°C by the end of the century.
Several factors have driven the extreme warmth of 2024, including the El Niño phenomenon. This weather pattern, characterized by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, began in mid-2023 and continued into 2024. While the El Niño phase officially ended around April, temperatures have remained high, with global records being broken for daily temperature averages.
Looking ahead, many scientists expect La Niña, the cooler counterpart to El Niño, to develop soon, potentially bringing a temporary dip in global temperatures. However, the exact nature of this shift remains uncertain. “We will be watching closely what happens going into 2025 and beyond,” says Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading.
Despite the potential cooling effects of La Niña, scientists caution that the rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere mean that new temperature records are likely to continue. “Warmer temperatures are intensifying storms, making heatwaves more extreme, and causing heavier rainfall,” said Professor Hawkins. “These are having clear, devastating effects on people worldwide.”
The only sustainable solution, experts agree, is to reach net-zero emissions and stabilize global temperatures. “Reaching net zero emissions is the only way to stop the escalating costs of climate disasters and mitigate the long-term impacts of these extreme weather events.”
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