Trump’s victory and return to the White House is anticipated to severely impact climate change efforts in the short term, though experts remain uncertain about the long-term consequences. As world leaders convene at COP29 in Azerbaijan to discuss climate action, Trump’s expected policies have raised concerns about their effect on global efforts to reduce emissions and secure climate funding for developing nations.
As a prominent climate skeptic, Trump has frequently labeled renewable energy as a “scam” and expressed intentions to increase U.S. oil and gas production. However, renewable energy, including wind and solar, is well-established in the U.S., meaning Trump’s push for fossil fuels may face substantial resistance.
Though climate change was not central to this year’s presidential race, Trump’s impending term could have significant global repercussions. During his previous term, he announced the U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement, a pivotal treaty to limit global warming. Although that exit shocked the international community, procedural rules delayed the formal withdrawal until November 2020. This time, if Trump withdraws again, it could take effect within one year, providing him with ample time to reshape U.S. climate policy without external obligations.
“The U.S. presence at COP this year is not just a lame duck; it’s practically a dead duck,” said Prof. Richard Klein of the Stockholm Environment Institute, emphasizing how a lack of U.S. commitments may deter other countries like China from advancing climate pledges.
For years, wealthy nations such as the U.S., U.K., and EU members have increased climate funding for developing nations, urging major economies like China to contribute. Experts worry Trump’s anticipated policies could slow this progress, complicating the path for developing countries to achieve net-zero emissions and combat global warming’s effects.
Trump’s administration may also consider leaving other key climate frameworks, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the basis of all international climate efforts. This move, though complex, would send a clear signal about U.S. disengagement from collaborative climate efforts.
The Trump administration is expected to intensify U.S. fossil fuel production, focusing on offshore drilling leases, pipeline approvals, and fracking on federal lands. This “drill, baby, drill” strategy aligns with Trump’s goals to lower domestic energy costs by boosting fossil fuel supply.
Dan Eberhart, CEO of oilfield services firm Canary LLC, welcomed these anticipated shifts: “Expect to see offshore lease sales, quicker pipeline approvals, and a major focus on federal land fracking. This administration’s mindset is all about lowering energy costs for the consumer.”
News of Trump’s victory has already affected markets, with a decline in the share prices of wind turbine manufacturers, as investors worry about the future of U.S. offshore wind projects.
Despite these concerns, the renewable energy sector may prove resilient. Trump faces opposition, including within the Republican Party, as green initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have created jobs and boosted economies in Republican-led districts. Roughly 85% of IRA spending has benefited these regions, underscoring green investment’s bipartisan economic impact.
Global investment in clean energy technology also surpasses fossil fuel spending. With clean energy’s rapid growth, Trump’s pro-fossil fuel policies may instead encourage investors to turn to other, more climate-friendly nations.
Christiana Figueres, former UN climate chief, expressed cautious optimism about the resilience of green initiatives: “This election result is undoubtedly a setback for global climate action, but it will not stop the shift towards decarbonizing economies and achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement.”
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